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How China could yet fail like Japan
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Five reasons high oil prices are probably here to stay
Five reasons high oil prices are probably here to stay - Frank Holmes
The new geopolitics of oil, the continued decline of the U.S. dollar and increasing demand arejust some of the reasons why higher oil prices are likely to be with us for some time
Posted: Tuesday , 12 Apr 2011
A number of forces continued to push oil prices higher last week, reaching their highest levels in the U.S. since September 2008.
One factor fueling the run has been the continued decline of the U.S. dollar. You can see from the chart that oil and the dollar historically are negatively correlated. This means that a rise in oil prices generally coincides with a decline in the dollar, and vice versa. The U.S. dollar has seen a dramatic decline since the beginning of the year as oil prices have moved some 30 percent higher. This could be due to fact that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. trade deficit is related to oil imports.
Despite the run up, oil's upward rate of change is still within its normal trading pattern over the past 60 trading days. Accordingly, this may imply that it isn't a spike and we haven't crossed into the extreme territory like we experienced in 2008 and 2009.
Conversely, oil prices are positively correlated with gold prices, which also saw a bounce this week. Looking back over the past one- and 10-year periods, oil and gold have roughly a 75 percent correlation. This means that three out of four times, when prices for one go up, prices for the other increase as well.
Another factor pushing prices higher is the seasonal strength that oil prices historically experience leading into the summer driving season. This chart shows the five-, 15- and 28-year patterns for oil prices. You can see that prices historically bottom in February before rising through the end of the summer.
We discussed in detail how these seasonal factors affect oil prices a few weeks ago. Click here to read "Oil's March Madness a Boost for Refiners."
Rising oil prices are also a result of what the Financial Times calls the "new geopolitics of oil." The FT says three elements creating this new environment are becoming clear:
Young populations with high unemployment rates and a skewed distribution of income are a volatile combination for the people in power.
To placate these groups, oil-producing countries are increasing public expenditures.
Governments are also to extend energy subsidies to shelter the country's consumers from rising energy prices.
A Deutsche Bank chart plots the share of population under the age of 30 for selected North African and Middle Eastern countries against the unemployment rate of this group. You can see that large oil producers such as Saudi Arabia have a high level of unemployment among youth populations.
This is why King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has announced a total of $125 billion worth (27 percent of the country's GDP) on social programs for the public. For King Abdullah, this is the cost of keeping peace but has driven up the breakeven price for Saudi oil production to $88 per barrel, according to the FT.
Keeping these young populations happy and working is not only domestically important for these governments but for global oil markets as well. You can see from this chart that a significant portion of the world's oil production comes from the Middle East.
With the unrest in Libya-a top-20 oil producer-essentially knocking out the country's entire production, any further unrest in another country could threaten global supply. Upcoming elections in Nigeria have the potential to disrupt production for the world's fifteenth-largest producer.
But it's not just geopolitics that is threatening production. Natural decline rates from mature fields such as Mexico's Cantarell oil field are starting to make a dent in global production. Reuters reported this morning that Norway, the world's eleventh-largest oil producer, is experiencing a significant slowdown in production from the Oseberg oil field in the North Sea. Production is expected to be cut by 26 percent in May to only 118,000 barrels per day.
Meanwhile, oil demand has been picking up significantly in both emerging and developed markets. Oil demand in China and the U.S. has been rising since mid-2009, well before the uprisings began in the Middle East.
In China, a big driver has been growth in the Chinese automobile market. Auto sales increased 2.6 percent in February, and March data released by the Chinese Auto Association over the weekend shows auto sales grew 5.36 percent on a year-over-year basis in March.
The G7 economies have been in an up cycle since last year. In the U.S., employment rates and consumer spending have been steadily improving. Oil prices rising too fast remains a threat to this recovery but BCA Research estimates that oil prices need to rise above $120 per barrel before "significantly undermining consumer and business confidence."
Frank Holmes is CEO and Chief Investment Officer, U.S. Global Investors - www.usfunds.com
Mineweb.com - The world's premier mining and mining investment website Five reasons high oil prices are probably here to stay - Frank Holmes - ENERGY | Mineweb
Monday, March 21, 2011
Silver: China Imports 245T In Feb, Qatar SWF “Interested” In Buying
Gold and silver rose on the open in Asia and have continued those gains so far in European trading with the Libyan military conflict leading to a safe haven bid and falls in the dollar and yen. The all time and multiyear nominal dollar highs set on March 7th ($1,444.95/oz and $36.75/oz) look set to be challenged as gold is less than 1% from its record high and silver less than 2% from its nominal recent high.
Safe haven demand continues especially in Asia and macroeconomic and geopolitical risk remains elevated. The tragedy in Japan and possibility of an ecological catastrophe has clouded the economic picture and created even more uncertainty which will lead to continuing physical demand.
In Japan, many ATMs have not been working for days now and this is leading to safe haven demand for gold. Should efforts to sort out the ATM problem not be resolved this week it could out pressure on the already strained Japanese financial system.
Iran and Other Central Banks Secretly Increasing Gold Reserves
News that Iran and other nations with large dollar currency reserves have greatly increased their gold reserves (see News) will not come as a surprise to our readers. It stands to reason that they would given the degree of exposure which most creditor nations have to the U.S. dollar. It also stands to reason as some of them do not have cordial relations with Washington and may be reluctant to fund the U.S. continuing imprudent fiscal policies.
Gold was not the only precious metal being bought with the FT reporting that the sovereign wealth fund of Qatar, the Qatar Investment Authority is reportedly interested in acquiring both and gold and silver.
The QIA has assets estimated to exceed $65 billion and this one sovereign wealth fund alone could easily corner the very small physical silver market which is worth some $36 billion at today's prices (1 billion ounces of above ground, investment grade refined silver bullion multiply by $36 per ounce).
China Imports 245 Tonnes of Silver in February and Qatar SWF "Interested" in Buying Silver
Central banks and sovereign wealth funds with massive exposure to the dollar, such as the Russians and Chinese, are not going to shout from the roof tops their intentions to diversify into gold and silver bullion as this would lead to a surge in bullion prices and an even greater depreciation of their dollar holdings.
China imported 245.6 metric tons of silver in February. The figure is close to the 260.6 metric tons imported in February 2010 and suggests that the Chinese are more than willing to buy silver at over $30 per ounce. It also suggests that the record Chinese imports of 3,475,394 kilos seen in 2010 (a massive four fold increase from 2009) may be again attained in 2011.
This demand is likely from the private sector rather than official but it is quite possible that there has been official buying in recent months. This may have come from the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) which manages nearly $3 trillion of currency reserves. The Chinese has experienced the collapse of a paper currency and hyperinflation as recently as 1949 and therefore appreciate the value of gold (and silver) as currencies which cannot be debased.
NEWS
(Financial Times) -- Iran bought gold to cut dollar exposure
Iran has bought large amounts of gold in the international market, according to a senior Bank of England official, in a sign of how growing political pressure has driven Tehran to reduce its exposure to the US dollar.
Andrew Bailey, head of banking at the Bank of England, told an American official that the central bank had observed "significant moves by Iran to purchase gold", according to a US diplomatic cable obtained by WikiLeaks and seen by the Financial Times.
Mr Bailey said the gold buying "was an attempt by Iran to protect its reserves from risk of seizure".
Market observers believe Tehran has been one of the biggest buyers of bullion over the past decade after China, Russia and India, and is among the 20 largest holders of gold reserves.
They estimate it holds more than 300 tonnes of gold, up from 168.4 tonnes in 1996, the date of the most recent International Monetary Fund data.
The cable, dated June 2006, is the first official confirmation of Tehran's buying.
Last year central banks became net buyers of bullion after 22 years of large sales, helping drive gold prices to all-time nominal highs. Trades by central banks are often kept secret.
Bankers said other Middle Eastern countries had also been quietly adding to gold holdings to diversify away from the dollar amid political tensions and volatility in currency markets.
"The totality of central bank reserves is not what is reported to the IMF," said Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of GFMS, a precious metals consultancy. "There's probably another 10 per cent on top of that."
Cables obtained by WikiLeaks cite Jordan's prime minister as saying the central bank was "instructed to increase its holdings" of gold, and a Qatar Investment Authority official as saying the QIA was interested in buying gold and silver.
"There is no question some Middle Eastern countries are very interested in buying gold," said George Milling-Stanley, head of government affairs at the mining industry-backed World Gold Council.
In the past two months, the political unrest in the Middle East has helped propel gold to a record price of $1,444.40 a troy ounce.
The Bank of England declined to comment on the cables, but did not dispute their contents. The central banks of Iran and Jordan and the QIA did not respond to requests for comment.QIA did not respond to requests for comment.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
We’ve Taken Out All Trendlines
We’ve Taken Out All Trendlines
We’ve Taken Out All Trendlines
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Friday, March 11, 2011
You should always listen to the Dr.
Published: March 10 2011 20:03 | Last updated: March 10 2011 22:50
It should come as no surprise that the strong, positive correlation between the world’s two leading industrial commodities has broken down over the past month. Oil has surged 15 per cent on supply concerns while copper is off 9 per cent from the record high of $10,190 a tonne it hit in London trading in part due to fears of what dearer and scarcer crude might do to the world economy. But developments in the Middle Kingdom, not just the Middle East, are affecting copper prices.
China, by far the world’s single largest copper consumer, already outstrips the appetite of what some decades ago was called the “industrialised world.” Its demand for the red metal overtook that of North America and Western Europe combined in 2008 and analysts at Credit Suisse forecast it will be double their consumption by 2013, soaking up a third of all supply.
Given its projected needs for copper-intensive infrastructure, those forecasts seem consistent with economic growth expectations. Even so, the copper market may be ascribing an overly smooth and upward-sloping trajectory for demand in the medium-term. Chinese imports of all industrial commodities took a tumble last month due to the Lunar New Year celebrations, but copper’s fall seems especially sharp. Shipments of 235,000 tonnes were the lowest since January 2009 when prices were a third today’s level.
For some months, local inventories have seemingly grown faster than underlying demand and the discount between local and international prices would have suggested. Some analysts, noting that a large part of Chinese bonded copper inventories have been used as collateral for loans, believe that this artificially stimulated the surge in imports. If so then this could make copper demand doubly-sensitive to Chinese government efforts to slow down credit growth.
Known as “the only metal with a PhD in economics” for its forecasting prowess, perhaps “Dr Copper” was warning us of speculative froth as much as expected growth when it surged earlier this year. If so, more weakness seems likely.
FT.com / Lex - Copper: the doctor’s prognosis
Friday, September 17, 2010
CNBC Market Blah, Blah ..Friday Look Ahead: Tech a Focus for Stocks Friday, as Gold Dazzles Investors
Friday Look Ahead: Tech a Focus for Stocks Friday, as Gold Dazzles Investors
CNBC Executive Editor
Photo: Oliver Quillia for CNBC.com Outside the New York Stock Exchange in lower Manhattan. |
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
China's economy overtakes Japan's in real terms
China's economy overtakes Japan's in real terms
Comparte|
Thursday, August 12, 2010
U.S.-China Trade Gap Stirs Lawmakers - WSJ.com
U.S. Lawmakers Gear Up to Seek New Yuan Policy
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FT.com / FT's rolling global market overview - Investors take fright at Fed warning
Investors take fright at Fed warning
The Market Eye
Markets saw a pillar of calm wobble today: the relatively high yields on 30-year debt.The recent trend has been of weakness at the back of the curve, suggesting investors were not expecting serious deflation. But today 30-year yields came in, and the spread with 10-years narrowed. It’s still near all-time record highs, so views haven’t shifted, only slid slightly. Plus, the move is likely short-lived, given the way that markets trade on Fed moves. Steven Major, head of fixed-income research at HSBC, says distortion is the rule-of-thumb in these situations:“Given that this action by the Fed was well telegraphed, Treasury yields have moved lower in a move which is beyond what we expected,” he said. “The biggest moves tend to happen when markets are salivating about the prospects. Normally when an expected event happens, the reaction is a damp squib.”Mr Major said that given the markets’ bearish tilt on the economy, yields on 10-year US Treasuries could fall as low as 2 per cent, from2.69 per cent currently. That would blow the curve right back out to record levels.
Monday, June 28, 2010
Changing Central Bank attitudes: gold to be strongest asset class - GOLD ANALYSIS | Mineweb
Changing Central Bank attitudes: gold to be strongest asset class
Posted: Friday , 25 Jun 2010
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=106888&sn=Detail&pid=102055
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
China's Forex (re:USD) Reserve Growth or the World's Largest Vendor Financer
Saturday, February 09, 2008
Monday, December 10, 2007
A look at Soft Commodities
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