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Showing posts with label China. Show all posts
Showing posts with label China. Show all posts

Friday, February 07, 2020

#Commodities under pressure due to #Coronavirus $CRB $GCC

Commodities have been under pressure lately as the Coronavirus situation gives fears of a worldwide slowdown of economies.

A vehicle to play is the Wisdom Tree Continuous Commodity Index Fund ETF, symbol GCC, US$ 17.74. GCC tracks an equal-weighted index of 17 commodities.

It uses futures contracts averaged across the nearest 6 months of the futures curve to maintain its exposure and rebalances daily. Each commodity is weighted around 5.9%. (Attachments 5&6)

Attachment 1 displays the CRB Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index. The index comprises 19 commodities but is heavily weighted in energy with oil being weighted 23%. Together with natural gas and gasoline, the energy sector is weighted way over 30% (attachment 2).


Wednesday, January 23, 2013

#China Narrowly Averts #Credit Bubble Pop With Latest Government Bailout Of First Domestic #Bond #Default | Zero Hedge






See the whole article here:  China Narrowly Averts Credit Bubble Pop With Latest Government Bailout Of First Domestic Bond Default | Zero Hedge


Wednesday, June 15, 2011

How China could yet fail like Japan

How China could yet fail like Japan
Martin Wolf
Until 1990, Japan was the most successful large economy in the world. Almost nobody predicted what would happen to it in the succeeding decades. Today, people are yet more in awe of the achievements of China. Is it conceivable that this colossus could learn that spectacular success is a precursor of surprising failure? The answer is: yes.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Five reasons high oil prices are probably here to stay

Five reasons high oil prices are probably here to stay - Frank Holmes

   

The new geopolitics of oil, the continued decline of the U.S. dollar and increasing demand arejust some of the reasons why higher oil prices are likely to be with us for some time

Author: Frank Holmes
Posted:  Tuesday , 12 Apr 2011


SAN ANTONIO (U.S. Global Investors) - 

A number of forces continued to push oil prices higher last week, reaching their highest levels in the U.S. since September 2008.
One factor fueling the run has been the continued decline of the U.S. dollar. You can see from the chart that oil and the dollar historically are negatively correlated. This means that a rise in oil prices generally coincides with a decline in the dollar, and vice versa. The U.S. dollar has seen a dramatic decline since the beginning of the year as oil prices have moved some 30 percent higher. This could be due to fact that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. trade deficit is related to oil imports.

Despite the run up, oil's upward rate of change is still within its normal trading pattern over the past 60 trading days. Accordingly, this may imply that it isn't a spike and we haven't crossed into the extreme territory like we experienced in 2008 and 2009.
Conversely, oil prices are positively correlated with gold prices, which also saw a bounce this week. Looking back over the past one- and 10-year periods, oil and gold have roughly a 75 percent correlation. This means that three out of four times, when prices for one go up, prices for the other increase as well.
Another factor pushing prices higher is the seasonal strength that oil prices historically experience leading into the summer driving season. This chart shows the five-, 15- and 28-year patterns for oil prices. You can see that prices historically bottom in February before rising through the end of the summer.

We discussed in detail how these seasonal factors affect oil prices a few weeks ago. Click here to read "Oil's March Madness a Boost for Refiners."
Rising oil prices are also a result of what the Financial Times calls the "new geopolitics of oil." The FT says three elements creating this new environment are becoming clear:
Young populations with high unemployment rates and a skewed distribution of income are a volatile combination for the people in power.
To placate these groups, oil-producing countries are increasing public expenditures.
Governments are also to extend energy subsidies to shelter the country's consumers from rising energy prices.

A Deutsche Bank chart plots the share of population under the age of 30 for selected North African and Middle Eastern countries against the unemployment rate of this group. You can see that large oil producers such as Saudi Arabia have a high level of unemployment among youth populations.
This is why King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has announced a total of $125 billion worth (27 percent of the country's GDP) on social programs for the public. For King Abdullah, this is the cost of keeping peace but has driven up the breakeven price for Saudi oil production to $88 per barrel, according to the FT.
Keeping these young populations happy and working is not only domestically important for these governments but for global oil markets as well. You can see from this chart that a significant portion of the world's oil production comes from the Middle East.

With the unrest in Libya-a top-20 oil producer-essentially knocking out the country's entire production, any further unrest in another country could threaten global supply. Upcoming elections in Nigeria have the potential to disrupt production for the world's fifteenth-largest producer.
But it's not just geopolitics that is threatening production. Natural decline rates from mature fields such as Mexico's Cantarell oil field are starting to make a dent in global production. Reuters reported this morning that Norway, the world's eleventh-largest oil producer, is experiencing a significant slowdown in production from the Oseberg oil field in the North Sea. Production is expected to be cut by 26 percent in May to only 118,000 barrels per day.
Meanwhile, oil demand has been picking up significantly in both emerging and developed markets. Oil demand in China and the U.S. has been rising since mid-2009, well before the uprisings began in the Middle East.
In China, a big driver has been growth in the Chinese automobile market. Auto sales increased 2.6 percent in February, and March data released by the Chinese Auto Association over the weekend shows auto sales grew 5.36 percent on a year-over-year basis in March.
The G7 economies have been in an up cycle since last year. In the U.S., employment rates and consumer spending have been steadily improving. Oil prices rising too fast remains a threat to this recovery but BCA Research estimates that oil prices need to rise above $120 per barrel before "significantly undermining consumer and business confidence."
Frank Holmes is CEO and Chief Investment Officer, U.S. Global Investors - www.usfunds.com 
Mineweb.com - The world's premier mining and mining investment website Five reasons high oil prices are probably here to stay - Frank Holmes - ENERGY | Mineweb

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Monday, March 21, 2011

Silver: China Imports 245T In Feb, Qatar SWF “Interested” In Buying

China Imports 245 Tonnes of Silver in February and Qatar SWF "Interested" in Buying Silver

Date: March 21, 2011



Gold and silver rose on the open in Asia and have continued those gains so far in European trading with the Libyan military conflict leading to a safe haven bid and falls in the dollar and yen. The all time and multiyear nominal dollar highs set on March 7th ($1,444.95/oz and $36.75/oz) look set to be challenged as gold is less than 1% from its record high and silver less than 2% from its nominal recent high.

Safe haven demand continues especially in Asia and macroeconomic and geopolitical risk remains elevated. The tragedy in Japan and possibility of an ecological catastrophe has clouded the economic picture and created even more uncertainty which will lead to continuing physical demand.

In Japan, many ATMs have not been working for days now and this is leading to safe haven demand for gold. Should efforts to sort out the ATM problem not be resolved this week it could out pressure on the already strained Japanese financial system.

Iran and Other Central Banks Secretly Increasing Gold Reserves

News that Iran and other nations with large dollar currency reserves have greatly increased their gold reserves (see News) will not come as a surprise to our readers. It stands to reason that they would given the degree of exposure which most creditor nations have to the U.S. dollar. It also stands to reason as some of them do not have cordial relations with Washington and may be reluctant to fund the U.S. continuing imprudent fiscal policies.

Gold was not the only precious metal being bought with the FT reporting that the sovereign wealth fund of Qatar, the Qatar Investment Authority is reportedly interested in acquiring both and gold and silver.

The QIA has assets estimated to exceed $65 billion and this one sovereign wealth fund alone could easily corner the very small physical silver market which is worth some $36 billion at today's prices (1 billion ounces of above ground, investment grade refined silver bullion multiply by $36 per ounce).

China Imports 245 Tonnes of Silver in February and Qatar SWF "Interested" in Buying Silver
Central banks and sovereign wealth funds with massive exposure to the dollar, such as the Russians and Chinese, are not going to shout from the roof tops their intentions to diversify into gold and silver bullion as this would lead to a surge in bullion prices and an even greater depreciation of their dollar holdings.

China imported 245.6 metric tons of silver in February. The figure is close to the 260.6 metric tons imported in February 2010 and suggests that the Chinese are more than willing to buy silver at over $30 per ounce. It also suggests that the record Chinese imports of 3,475,394 kilos seen in 2010 (a massive four fold increase from 2009) may be again attained in 2011.

This demand is likely from the private sector rather than official but it is quite possible that there has been official buying in recent months. This may have come from the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) which manages nearly $3 trillion of currency reserves. The Chinese has experienced the collapse of a paper currency and hyperinflation as recently as 1949 and therefore appreciate the value of gold (and silver) as currencies which cannot be debased.

NEWS

(Financial Times) -- Iran bought gold to cut dollar exposure

Iran has bought large amounts of gold in the international market, according to a senior Bank of England official, in a sign of how growing political pressure has driven Tehran to reduce its exposure to the US dollar.

Andrew Bailey, head of banking at the Bank of England, told an American official that the central bank had observed "significant moves by Iran to purchase gold", according to a US diplomatic cable obtained by WikiLeaks and seen by the Financial Times.
Mr Bailey said the gold buying "was an attempt by Iran to protect its reserves from risk of seizure".
Market observers believe Tehran has been one of the biggest buyers of bullion over the past decade after China, Russia and India, and is among the 20 largest holders of gold reserves.
They estimate it holds more than 300 tonnes of gold, up from 168.4 tonnes in 1996, the date of the most recent International Monetary Fund data.
The cable, dated June 2006, is the first official confirmation of Tehran's buying.
Last year central banks became net buyers of bullion after 22 years of large sales, helping drive gold prices to all-time nominal highs. Trades by central banks are often kept secret.
Bankers said other Middle Eastern countries had also been quietly adding to gold holdings to diversify away from the dollar amid political tensions and volatility in currency markets.
"The totality of central bank reserves is not what is reported to the IMF," said Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of GFMS, a precious metals consultancy. "There's probably another 10 per cent on top of that."
Cables obtained by WikiLeaks cite Jordan's prime minister as saying the central bank was "instructed to increase its holdings" of gold, and a Qatar Investment Authority official as saying the QIA was interested in buying gold and silver.
"There is no question some Middle Eastern countries are very interested in buying gold," said George Milling-Stanley, head of government affairs at the mining industry-backed World Gold Council.
In the past two months, the political unrest in the Middle East has helped propel gold to a record price of $1,444.40 a troy ounce.
The Bank of England declined to comment on the cables, but did not dispute their contents. The central banks of Iran and Jordan and the QIA did not respond to requests for comment.QIA did not respond to requests for comment.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

We’ve Taken Out All Trendlines

We’ve Taken Out All Trendlines

Things are getting VERY ugly in the financial markets. Indeed, we’ve taken out virtually every trendline that supported the markets from the 2008 Crash.
First off are the emerging markets: trendline broken and retest failed.
Same goes for THE commodity play: Brazil:
And the “growth miracle” China:
Here in the US, the S&P 500 has taken out the trendline that supported it from the end of September onwards:
The US Dollar has ALSO taken out its long-term trendline:
In plain terms, the financial system is RED ALERT. The question now is if additional liquidity can prop this giant house of cards up anymore.


We’ve Taken Out All Trendlines

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Friday, March 11, 2011

You should always listen to the Dr.

Copper: the doctor’s prognosis

Published: March 10 2011 20:03 | Last updated: March 10 2011 22:50

It should come as no surprise that the strong, positive correlation between the world’s two leading industrial commodities has broken down over the past month. Oil has surged 15 per cent on supply concerns while copper is off 9 per cent from the record high of $10,190 a tonne it hit in London trading in part due to fears of what dearer and scarcer crude might do to the world economy. But developments in the Middle Kingdom, not just the Middle East, are affecting copper prices.

China, by far the world’s single largest copper consumer, already outstrips the appetite of what some decades ago was called the “industrialised world.” Its demand for the red metal overtook that of North America and Western Europe combined in 2008 and analysts at Credit Suisse forecast it will be double their consumption by 2013, soaking up a third of all supply.
Chart
Given its projected needs for copper-intensive infrastructure, those forecasts seem consistent with economic growth expectations. Even so, the copper market may be ascribing an overly smooth and upward-sloping trajectory for demand in the medium-term. Chinese imports of all industrial commodities took a tumble last month due to the Lunar New Year celebrations, but copper’s fall seems especially sharp. Shipments of 235,000 tonnes were the lowest since January 2009 when prices were a third today’s level.

For some months, local inventories have seemingly grown faster than underlying demand and the discount between local and international prices would have suggested. Some analysts, noting that a large part of Chinese bonded copper inventories have been used as collateral for loans, believe that this artificially stimulated the surge in imports. If so then this could make copper demand doubly-sensitive to Chinese government efforts to slow down credit growth.


Known as “the only metal with a PhD in economics” for its forecasting prowess, perhaps “Dr Copper” was warning us of speculative froth as much as expected growth when it surged earlier this year. If so, more weakness seems likely.

FT.com / Lex - Copper: the doctor’s prognosis

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Friday, September 17, 2010

CNBC Market Blah, Blah ..Friday Look Ahead: Tech a Focus for Stocks Friday, as Gold Dazzles Investors

Friday Look Ahead: Tech a Focus for Stocks Friday, as Gold Dazzles Investors

Published: Thursday, 16 Sep 2010 | 9:10 PM E
By: Patti Domm
CNBC Executive Editor
Some good news from the tech sector could be a positive for stocks Friday.
Outside the New York Stock Exchange in lower Manhattan.
Photo: Oliver Quillia for CNBC.com
Outside the New York Stock Exchange in lower Manhattan.

Both Oracle and Research in Motion reported strong earnings after Thursday's bell. Separately, Texas Instruments boosted its $0.12 dividend by a penny and said it would buy back another $7.5 billion shares. All three stocks were higher in after-hours trading.
Stocks Friday morning could feel the effect of the quadruple expiration of futures and options. Traders expect the expiration to be low key at the open, and if anything, the impact should be slightly positive.
CPI, at 8:30 a.m., is expected to show a 0.3 percent increase in August consumer prices. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve slightly to a reading of 70, from 68.9 last month, but economists say the strong performance of the stock market this month could push that number a bit higher. August's sentiment reading was the second lowest of the year. Consumer sentiment is released at 9:55 a.m.
Stocks drifted on both sides of the unchanged mark Thursday. The Dow ended up 22 at 10,594, and the S&P 500 was off less than a half point at 1124.  The dollar weakened against the euro, and dollar/yen was barely changed after the Bank of Japan intervened to curb the yen's rise Wednesday.
"This intervention might have higher chances of succeeding, assuming we continue to see relatively acceptable U.S. economic data. That's the critical thing," said Boris Schlossberg of GFT Forex. "...as long as the idea of double dip keeps receding, Treasury yields should stabilize and go back up and that will be critical to dollar/yen."
On the other hand, if we see the 10-year yield move to 2.5 percent, or dip below 2.5 percent, I don't think any amount of money will stem the (dollar) decline," he said.
Barry Knapp, chief equities portfolio strategist at Barclay's, said the initial stock market reaction after a big intervention is often a short-term decline. "For the first couple of days, the market goes down a little bit..the first reaction is to look at the dollar," he said.
The view is "if the dollar is going up, that's bad for earnings, so sell it. Dollar's going down, that's good. That's a very simplistic approach. I don't think it's right at all," he said. "If you look back at 2003, when the Japanese were intervening dramatically, the initial reaction was that the stock market sold off, and then it regained its footing."
Knapp said the intervention at that time was about $360 billion, and he estimated this round could total $250 billion. The BOJ was reported to have bought more than $20 billion Wednesday.
"If somebody puts $250 billion into the markets, event though that money won't be buying riskier assets, it can trigger an effect," he said.
The impact on Treasurys could also be noticeable, he said. Traders have been speculating the Japanese will park their dollar holdings in shorter duration Treasurys. "Initially the Treasury curve steepens, but then that tends to drive investors who were in 2s and 5s to extend out the curve and it starts to flatten. Then it triggers a whole position rebalancing."
All that Glitters
Gold continued to dazzle investors Thursday, scoring its second record settlement of the week. Investors are betting it could try to break the $1,300 level, maybe even as early as next week depending on the outcome of the Fed's meeting Tuesday.  Gold Thursday rose about a half percent to settle at $1273.80.
Gold has faced some high-profile criticism this week, including from investor George Soros who called it a bubble. "If you think about a world where every major country is trying to find a way to devalue its currency, gold looks pretty good in that environment. Personally I think the dollar is going down more. There's lots of reasons why gold will continue to rise. I don't know if I'd buy it, but I know I wouldn't short it," Knapp said.
 http://www.cnbc.com/id/39223276

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

China's economy overtakes Japan's in real terms

Hello America

China's economy overtakes Japan's in real terms

CHINA has become the world's second biggest economy according to data released on Monday August 16th. Japan's economy fell behind China's at market exchange rates in the second quarter (it has been number three in PPP terms for some time). These numbers are not strictly comparable: Japan's data have been seasonally adjusted while those for China have not. Quibbles aside, Japan will surely be eclipsed soon, if it has not been already. Data compiled by Angus Maddison, an economist who died earlier this year, suggest that China and India were the biggest economies in the world for almost all of the past 2000 years. Why they fell so far behind may be more of a mystery than why they are currently flourishing.


Comparte|

Thursday, August 12, 2010

U.S.-China Trade Gap Stirs Lawmakers - WSJ.com


U.S. Lawmakers Gear Up to Seek New Yuan Policy

WASHINGTON—The U.S. trade deficit with China in June hit its highest level in nearly two years and could spur congressional pressure on Beijing to revamp its currency policy.

America's trade deficit with China jumped 17% in June over the previous month to $26.2 billion, the biggest gap since October 2008. Earlier this week, China said its overall trade surplus hit $28.7 billion in July, an 18-month high.
Associated Press
A production line in Guangdong province, in southern China, in May.

The Commerce Department figures could set the stage for a fight in Congress this fall over China's currency policy. Some lawmakers, arguing that China has set the yuan artificially low to make its exports more price competitive on global markets, are keen to pass laws that would penalize countries that are found to be manipulating their currencies.

China, under pressure from the U.S. and other countries, announced a shift to a more-flexible exchange rate in June. But the yuan has appreciated less than 1% since then, and some economists say that it remains undervalued against the dollar by at least 25%.

While efforts to pass such legislation have made little headway, lawmakers and industry groups agree that the issue could gain traction in September, given that voters, who head to the polls in November, are angry about the country's continued weak economy and high unemployment rate.

A number of bills have garnered bipartisan support, including measures promoted by Tim Ryan (D., Ohio) and Patrick Murphy (D., Pa.) in the House, and by Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) in the Senate.

These efforts would, among other things, make it easier for companies to seek import duties on goods from countries designated as having undervalued currencies. The Ryan-Murphy bill has more than 127 co-sponsors, including 37 Republicans.

Nadeam Elshami, a spokesman for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.), said the House Ways and Means Committee would hold a hearing on the currency issue in September after Congress returns from summer recess.

"But no final decisions have been made on moving legislation forward," he said.

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio), a co-sponsor of the Schumer bill and a member of President Barack Obama's Export Council, wrote Mr. Obama on Aug. 4, urging the administration to take tougher measures to address "unfairly subsidized exports" by countries such as China. Ten other senators signed the letter, including Republicans Jim Bunning of Kentucky and Olympia Snowe of Maine.

The Treasury Department on Wednesday declined to comment on the U.S.-China trade gap or China's currency policy.

Business groups are expected to intensify their lobbying on the issue, although they differ over whether punitive legislation aimed at China's currency policy is the best solution for narrowing the U.S.-China trade gap.

Augustine Tantillo, executive director of the American Manufacturing Trade Action Coalition, a Washington trade group representing U.S. manufacturers, says the group backs the Ryan-Murphy bill and is lobbying lawmakers, targeting those from Midwestern and Southeastern states with large manufacturing sectors and high unemployment.

"These trade surpluses aren't a result of happenstance," he said. "We're hoping concerns about job creation and the fall election environment will finally give us an opportunity to bring the legislation to a vote."

Erin Ennis, vice president for the U.S.-China Business Council, which represents U.S. companies doing business in China, said the window for China to "show it was serious" about addressing U.S. concerns about the yuan would close in September, when Congress returns to session.

But while Ms. Ennis expected the Chinese currency policy to be a major issue in the fall, "this isn't our member companies' top priority," she said.

Rather, she said that Congress and the administration should focus on reducing barriers to China's market and on the country's new "indigenous innovation" policy, which many Western companies say unfairly favors Chinese companies by promoting domestic innovation.
Write to Kathy Chen at kathy.chen@wsj.com
U.S.-China Trade Gap Stirs Lawmakers - WSJ.com
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FT.com / FT's rolling global market overview - Investors take fright at Fed warning


Investors take fright at Fed warning

ByTelis Demos in London
Published: August 11 2010 09:04 | Last updated: August 11 2010 22:06
Wednesday 21.30 BST. US stocks are tumbling sharply as risky assets react to the Federal Reserve’s decision to downgrade its outlook while at the same time growth in other regions looks to be at its weakest for the year.
The Fed’s move to pump up a flagging recovery by buying Treasury bonds with mortgage-backed security proceeds has led to a rush to haven assets. The yen finally broke through to its strongest point since 1995 – at Y84.71 to the dollar, which it has been nearing for weeks.
With the Fed now a buyer of debt, some US government bonds saw record low yields, as did bonds in other markets as investors fled risky assets. An auction of 10-year Treasuries saw the lowest yield of any sale since January 2009.
Equity markets have been severely disappointed by the Fed’s downgrade of its outlook and in its rather tepid response to that outlook (the Fed’s balance sheet will not actually expand). The FTSE All-World stock index has fallen 2.7 per cent to late July levels, its strongest move since June, led by a 2.8 per cent decline in the S&P 500 index.
“The Fed delivered the minimum that had been expected,” said Hans Redeker, global head of foreign exchange strategy at BNP Paribas.“

The Market Eye

Markets saw a pillar of calm wobble today: the relatively high yields on 30-year debt.The recent trend has been of weakness at the back of the curve, suggesting investors were not expecting serious deflation. But today 30-year yields came in, and the spread with 10-years narrowed. It’s still near all-time record highs, so views haven’t shifted, only slid slightly. Plus, the move is likely short-lived, given the way that markets trade on Fed moves. Steven Major, head of fixed-income research at HSBC, says distortion is the rule-of-thumb in these situations:
“Given that this action by the Fed was well telegraphed, Treasury yields have moved lower in a move which is beyond what we expected,” he said. “The biggest moves tend to happen when markets are salivating about the prospects. Normally when an expected event happens, the reaction is a damp squib.”
Mr Major said that given the markets’ bearish tilt on the economy, yields on 10-year US Treasuries could fall as low as 2 per cent, from
2.69 per cent currently. That would blow the curve right back out to record levels.
A report that the US trade deficit widened again in June to 2009 levels sent its own shockwaves through markets. Combined with a slowdown in industrial production in China to two-year lows, and a drop in machine orders in Japan, it confirmed suspicions that the rest of the world would not be able to help the world’s biggest economy grow.
“Without earnings season holding us up, investors are focusing on the bad news,” said Jonathan Corpina, a senior partner at Meridian Equity Partners and trader on the New York floor. “We heard this language from the Fed on Tuesday. Really it was the combination with the numbers from China and the trade balance that put extreme pressure on our markets today.“
Crude oil’s decline also accelerated following a warning from the International Energy Agency that the Gulf of Mexico oil spill may restrict supply in 2011. It has slipped below $80 a barrel.
The fears for global growth were especially sharp in Europe, where oddly the dollar surged against the euro in spite of monetary loosening in the US.
“Investors are looking at Europe and saying, ‘I don’t care about policy tightness’. If the US has a real risk of weakness, then that raises risks for growth everywhere in the world,” said Eric Fine, manager of G-175 funds at Van Eck Global.
The euro is at its lowest level since before the bank stress tests last month. German 10-year Bunds are also at record low yield levels as “peripheral” European bonds from Greece and Spain are sold-off.
Europe. Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, said in his inflation outlook that economic growth would slow to below-target levels. The UK also saw a stark drop in consumer confidence and fallingemployment growth. Like the Fed, the Bank announced that quantitative easing would continue, but not extended to new levels.
The FTSE 100 index dropped 2.4 per cent, falling further after Wall Street’s weak opening, but already weak following the UK’s dismal data and the Bank of England’s unwillingness to provide new monetary relief. Germany’s Dax closed down 2.1 per cent. Basic materials, closely tied to demand in China, and cyclical technology and financial shares are the laggard sectors.
• Asia. The Nikkei 225 average fell 2.7 per cent as the yen jumped following the Fed decision. A stronger yen has weighed on Japanese export companies. Japan also said that industrial orders rose only 1.6 per cent in July, versus a forecast of 5.5 per cent growth.
Chinese shares were also lower on the poorer industrial growth figures. The mainland Shanghai Composite index was down by 0.5 per cent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong dropped 0.8 per cent, falling lower as it neared the close.
• Currencies. The yen has since bounced off its low of Y84.79, and is now up 0.1 per cent at Y85.38. Considerations such as haven buying for the dollar, and the risk of Japanese intervention in the market, have kept the currency from rising further.
The euro is down 2.3 per cent at $1.2870, its steepest one-day drop since January 2009. It has given up all its gains following the well-received bank stress tests. The yen is surging 2.4 per cent against the euro to Y109.89.
The pound was hard-hit following a jobs report in which the decline in jobless claims slowed, and the Bank of England’s inflation report. Sterling is down 1.2 per cent, at $1.5665, after falling more than 1 per cent in the previous session.
The New Zealand dollar is off 1.2 per cent against the yen and the Australian dollar is down by 1.7 per cent against the US dollar. Both currencies closely track commodities and interest rates, which rise with growth hopes.
• Debt. The German 10-year Bund was the sharpest mover, with the yield falling 11 basis points to 2.43 per cent, a new record low.
Japanese 10-year yields fell 2 basis points to 0.999 per cent.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasuries is down 7 basis points to 2.69 per cent, off its lowest point since February 2009 hit earlier in the session. Five-year bonds, 7-year, and 2-year bonds also dipped to record-low yields, though they had recovered slightly as the session wore on.
Gilt yields also fell sharply, with 10-year bonds down 11bp to yield 3.14 per cent, their lowest since April 2009 following the Bank’s dovish outlook. An auction on Tuesday saw long-dated gilts pricing at below-market yields, though not strongly in demand by investors.
• Commodities. Benchmark crude oil is falling further past $80 a barrel, now at $77.51, down 3.4 per cent.
Gold, in one of the few signs of reassurance, is down just 0.5 per cent at $1,199 an ounce. Bullion interests investors as the risk of monetary inflation rises and the Fed’s relatively cautious move has evidently not sparked a change in fears of either inflation or deflation.
However, traders cautioned that big moves in gold may be muted by liquidations that raised cash for investors fleeing risk.
Follow the Global Market Overview on Twitter @telisdemos
(Jamie Chisholm is on holiday)

Monday, June 28, 2010

Changing Central Bank attitudes: gold to be strongest asset class - GOLD ANALYSIS | Mineweb



Changing Central Bank attitudes: gold to be strongest asset class

Poll of Central Bankers suggests they expect gold to outperform equities, bonds, currencies - and oil. If they aren't selling gold it's probably a good job that no-one wants to borrow it either.
Author: Rhona O'Connell
Posted:  Friday , 25 Jun 2010 


LONDON - 
At its recent annual seminar for reserve management, investment bank UBS polled over 80 reserve managers from the official sector as to their views on different reserve assets.  One outcome was that gold was expected to be the strongest asset class in the second half of this year, while 22% of those polled thought that gold would be the most important reserve asset over the next 25 years.
This may seem like a long time horizon, but central bankers have to think in the long term as custodians of national wealth (expect, of course, when governments get in the way and insist on, for example, gold disposals with prior publicity).  The view underpins the swing in attitudes towards gold in the official sector that has been evolving.  Clearly the shifting tides in sentiment are informed by increased concern over fiscal imbalances, currency dislocations and sovereign risk, all of which have escalated over the past eighteen months, and which are therefore helping to change a trend of sales that was most-recently re-established in 1989.
Figures from Consolidated Gold Fields (as was) and GFMS Ltd, which assumed responsibility from Consolidated Gold Fields for compiling the Gold Survey when the former company was taken over by Hanson Trust (after a mighty tussle with Minorco) in 1989, show that over the 62 years 1948 to 12009 inclusive, the official sector has been a net seller for 34 years, or 55% of the time.  The sector was a net buyer from 1948 through to 1966, during which time it absorbed almost 8,000 tonnes.  Since then it has offloaded just over 10,000 tonnes, with world holdings, as reported to the IMF, standing at a shade below 30,200 tonnes.  The latest figures for world holdings, which relate to end-March, show a tonnage of 30,463t, reflect a 180t reclassification of Saudi's holdings, while much of the balance of the increase registered to "all countries", some 39 tonnes, comes from the acquisition programmes of Russia and the Philippines, plus, to a lesser extent, Venezuela. 
Annual and cumulative changes in the official sector's gold mountain (metric tonnes) - back to the post-world war II position?

CBGA signatories have, since the first Agreement was signed in September 1999, been responsible for 3,906 tonnes of the official sector's net disposals, equivalent to approximately 90% of the total. CBGA sales have collapsed this year with less than one tonne coming onto the market under CBGA3 so far this calendar year.  The majority of sales into the market since January have come from the IMF, which has sold almost 39t into the open market this year, leaving almost 153t to go. 
The implication from official statements from both the CBGA signatories and the IMF itself suggest that any further disposals into the open market (and it would look likely that the balance of the metal will come on-market unless a fresh central bank suddenly appears on the scene) will be worked, at least on a de facto basis, under the auspices of the CBGA.  Once this metal is out of the way then it s entirely possible that the official sector will become a net buyer of gold again for the first time since four years of purchases that amounted to over 630 tonnes (9% of mine supply) in 1985-1988. This was when producing countries were absorbing local production and others - notably Taiwan, amid much publicity, were - wait for it -diversifying away from the dollar....



http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=106888&sn=Detail&pid=102055

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

China's Forex (re:USD) Reserve Growth or the World's Largest Vendor Financer

China's Reserves

China has increased its foreign currency reserves nearly tenfold in the last eight years, amassing U.S. dollars at an incredible rate. Unlike historical strategies for building reserves, China's foreign currency accumulation is not intended to strengthen their currency. Rather, China's stated aim is to protect U.S. purchasing power. China presents itself as the friendly trading partner, saying it will gladly keep buying dollars so that the U.S. may keep buying Chinese products. But these massive U.S. dollar holdings also give China the ability to influence the U.S. currency. The Chinese have a keen understanding of the concept of leverage, and can use these reserves to maintain their current trade advantages. Any attempt to make China revalue the renminbi will surely be met by more threats from Beijing to diversify their reserves away from the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the United States has remained complacent about growing its foreign currency reserves, leaving the U.S. government powerless to curb the dollar's recent plunge in value.
May 28, 2008

Monday, December 10, 2007

A look at Soft Commodities

Resource Investor - News that trades


US Farms, Inc. - A Different Kind of Natural Resource Company

By Jack Lifton
10 Dec 2007 at 12:49 AM

DETROIT (ResourceInvestor.com) -- In my previous articles, I have concentrated on providing current information on metals and groups of metals, so I have mostly mentioned and discussed companies in the mining and mineral processing industries. I got to thinking that the term 'natural resource' really covers a lot more than just mining metals and minerals and the production of energy resources such as coal, oil and gas. So today I would like to take a look at a different kind of natural resource company; one dedicated to the renewable production of agricultural products, i.e., a farming company.

There are a lot of publicly owned farming companies out there, both large and small. Well-known companies like Chiquita Brands [NYSE:CQB] or Del Monte [NYSE:FDP] abound, as do smaller ones like Calavo Growers [NASDAQ:CVGW] and Griffin Land & Nurseries [NASDAQ:GRIF]. However, in keeping with Resource Investor’s tradition of being the first to identify new start-up and growth (excuse the pun) opportunities, I would like to look at a small firm near San Diego, California, American owned and operated, called US Farms, Inc. [OTCBB:USFI], which recently came to my attention through a conversation with a friend in California.

US Farms is interesting in a number of ways: the crops that it raises, the new farming technology it has implemented and the potential for the growth in volume of these products resulting from some rather creative use applications and production techniques.

At first glance, US Farms looks like a fairly normal farming operation. It is a diversified farming and nursery company. The nursery unit, which provides a full range of ornamental products like Aloe Vera, Cactus, Jade, Palm Trees and Cycads, is a relatively small unit of the company, providing only about 4% of sales. The biggest revenue generator currently results from is the growing and brokering of the food crops, asparagus, tomatoes, and garlic, and the growing and harvesting of Aloe Vera for use as an ingredient of patent medicines and cosmetics.

In the first quarter of each year, US Farms is one of the largest U.S. growers of asparagus. Being in the temperate climate of Southern California allows US Farms to time its harvest to the December through March period where little domestic, American, competition exists, resulting in an ability to command premium prices. Tomatoes and garlic are sold throughout the year, with garlic being sold as fresh, dehydrated or seed stock. While severe competition for dried or dehydrated garlic from China is felt, most of US Farms’ output is sold as fresh and the brokering side of the business is able to benefit from marketing the Chinese dried product to its, US Farms,’ established customer base.

To effectively compete with other growers and importers, US Farms has implemented some “leading edge technology,” at least as it applies to a profession almost as old as man. One of these is the practice of ‘shade farming’. The company has a ‘shade house’, built at a fraction of the cost of a glass greenhouse, with a proprietary cover cloth that deflects the ultra violet rays of the sun. This keeps it from burning the plants and creates an environment that reduces plant stress and stimulates up to 35% above average growth. Coupled with a computerized watering system, you get “organic farming on steroids,” thereby improving returns.

The item I found most interesting however, was the Aloe Vera production and some of the plans US Farms have for marketing it. The company is very active in traditional Aloe Vera market, being one of the largest U.S. growers. It wholesales Aloe Vera leaves on a national basis selling bulk Aloe Vera, leaves and plants to grocery stores, and processors, as well as selling landscape and house plants through its greenhouse unit. It is the synergy of this ability to produce substantial quantities of Aloe and its in-place nursery business that may allow US Farms to strategically position itself in a future market for Aloe Vera and other such succulents.

Aloe Vera is widely known and used in homeopathic medicine. My grandmother used to refer to it as a ‘medicinal miracle’. In our family, we used Aloe Vera for everything from treating burns and cuts to hair and scalp treatment and even for treating constipation in babies. However, one aspect of Aloe Vera that most people don’t think about is that it doesn’t catch fire or burn very well. If fact, when I tried to ignite a (large) plant, it just melted on my barbecue and put out the fire. Being a large succulent, it should be pretty effective as a fire barrier. With all of the wildfires that have taken place in the San Diego area; this solid, typically grown as a, 2 ½-foot-high succulent may find popularity as a hedge-type plant that could afford added fire protection to property.

Aloe matures in about 2 ½ years, growing about a foot a year, and is about half water or ‘juice’. Being a succulent, it can survive drought, storing water, when moisture is available, in its leaves. These leaves can become fairly massive. Mature leaves sold by US Farms weigh up to 5 pounds and there are 8 or more to a plant. Imagine what a nice barrier a series of rows of Aloe would produce – plus they look nice and have attractive yellow flowers. As Kermit the Frog used to say, “it’s not easy being green,” especially during a drought in Southern California, but Aloe Vera manages to do it, and thrive. I understand that US Farms has actually broached the subject of Aloe Vera crops being grown for profit along California highway right of ways and, instead of paying to use the land, being paid to use it as a fire break filler.

The company has a number of other interesting approaches to the business, some of which are currently being put into place, which I can cover in future articles. One of the ideas under investigation is the potential of some of the cacti and succulents, including types of Aloe Vera, as a remediation crop for old mining properties. Aloe Vera will grow on some pretty sparse soil, with limited moisture required, so the plants might work in areas that don’t freeze and have soil with little contained humus. The latter tends to be a characteristic of many of the old strip mine properties.

One big difference that I see in US Farms, vs. many of the junior mining stocks I have reviewed, is a real cash flow. While not yet showing a profit, as the company is in a ramp-up period, and many of its plantings are yet to mature, they do generate a rapidly growing cash flow.

Sales, for the 9-month period ending September 30, 2007 (unaudited) grew from $214,509 to $6,802,764 over the same period in 2006, based on data contained in the company’s 10-Q. Accounts receivable are on the high side, again reflecting the ramp-up period, at approximately $2 million. In the long run, however, this represents future cash flow. Growth projections by the company are for sales in the $28 million range by the end of 2008, with a further doubling in 2009.

Taking a look at a natural resource company like US Farms might make sense for those seeking diversification in a natural resource oriented portfolio. It holds personal interest for me as Aloe was a form of homeopathic medicine I grew up with. Having an aloe ‘fire barrier’ that can double as a medicine chest might make a lot of sense to homeowners in fire-prone areas and could greatly improve the future prospects of companies like US Farms.

I believe that the current Chinese demand driven commodity boom is going to force a rational environmentalism on the U.S., because we either will begin again producing the metals and minerals we need or we either will not have them or have to pay such exorbitant prices for them that our consumer economy might be forced to re-price some common items, such as personal electronics, as luxury items.

Remediation of mining sites is a growing business; if it becomes a mandatory part of business planning for mining don’t say I didn’t tell you about Aloe Vera and US Farms.

© Copyright 2007, Resource Investor.

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