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Showing posts with label currencies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label currencies. Show all posts
Thursday, March 05, 2020
Tuesday, May 22, 2012
Greek overnight deposits are disappearing
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Monday, October 10, 2011
Gold Price Set to Drop into Aggressive Accumulation Zone
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Gold Price Set to Drop into Aggressive Accumulation Zone
Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011 Oct 09, 2011 - 09:30 AM
By: Clive_Maund
It now looks like we were a little too bullish in the last update, for the way gold has acted over the past week suggests that another sharp drop is imminent before the dust finally settles on this reactive phase, that it likely to take it to or some way below its recent panic lows.
On gold's 4-month chart it is now apparent that a bear Pennant has been forming since the panic bottom, with the weak upside volume portending an imminent breakdown and steep drop. A reader pointed out to me during last week that gold's panic lows occurred in thin trading on the Hong Kong market, and for this reason we do not have to factor in the tail of the hammer candlestick when deciding where to draw the boundaries of the Pennant. The measuring implications of this Pennant call for a drop at least to the vicinity of the intraday lows of the Reversal Hammer and possibly somewhat lower towards the $1520 area - at this point the decline should have completely run its course and we will be looking to buy aggressively. If we look carefully we can see that a small "bearish engulfing pattern" has formed in gold over the past 2 trading days, implying that breakdown from the Pennant and the expected steep drop that will follow is imminent. A reason why this next drop should end the decline is that gold is already deeply oversold as shown by its MACD indicator, and it will of course be even more so after this impending decline. Those interested in going long gold investments in the near future should "keep their powder dry" but stand ready to wade in big time if gold drops into the bright green "aggressive accumulation zone" shown on our chart. 
Other reasons why the imminent sharp drop expected should mark the end of gold's reactive phase are to be seen on its 1-year chart. On this chart we can see that a decline to or below its recent panic lows will take it deep into strong support near to its rising 200-day moving average, the classic point for a major reaction in an ongoing bullmarket to end.
Still another reason for the reaction to terminate with this final drop are gold's now strongly bullish COT chart on which we can see that Commercial short and Large Spec long positions have dropped back to relatively low levels - the lowest for a long, long time.
There is certainly plenty of light at the end of the tunnel for gold over a longer time horizon, and not just that which arises from its own COT charts. The COT charts for the dollar are strongly bearish, with the Commercials going heavily short, and they are also going heavily long the euro. This implies that the current state of extreme crisis in the Eurozone should ease soon and the euro rally sharply, and the dollar fall heavily - which suggests that european leaders may scale back their bickering soon and cooperate sufficiently to ease the crisis with generous helpings of QE, which will of course be bullish for gold and silver. Our euro fx COT chart below shows the big long position in the that the Commercials have built up.
Although the big Commercial short position in the dollar is a harbinger of doom for the current strong dollar rally, it looks on its 3-month chart like it has a bit of life left in it yet. The long-legged doji candlestick that formed on Friday implies that it will turn higher again next week and maybe make new highs.
Bearish price action in both copper and oil on Friday suggests that they too will turn down this coming week.
By Clive Maund
CliveMaund.com
CliveMaund.com
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© 2011 Clive Maund - The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maunds opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.
Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications.
Clive Maund Archive
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Gold Price Set to Drop into Aggressive Accumulation Zone :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website
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Friday, September 09, 2011
Global Currency Wars Sees Swiss Franc Devalue 8.5% Against Gold In Week | ZeroHedge
Gold in Swiss Francs
Gold in Swiss Francs – 5 Day (Tick)
Gold in Swiss Francs in Nominal Terms – 40 Years (Quarterly)
From zerohedge.com:
The Swiss franc’s 10% plummet against gold this week clearly shows how cash is far from ‘king’ and no fiat currency in the world, in any bank in the world can be considered a “safe haven”.
Gold is again becoming the sovereign of sovereigns and reasserting itself as the safe haven money and asset par excellence.
If the Swiss franc, long considered the safest fiat currency in the world, can devalue 10% in a week, then it can happen and likely will happen to other currencies as well.
Global Currency Wars Sees Swiss Franc Devalue 8.5% Against Gold In Week | ZeroHedge
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Monday, March 21, 2011
Silver: China Imports 245T In Feb, Qatar SWF “Interested” In Buying
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Emerging Markets,
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China Imports 245 Tonnes of Silver in February and Qatar SWF "Interested" in Buying Silver
Gold and silver rose on the open in Asia and have continued those gains so far in European trading with the Libyan military conflict leading to a safe haven bid and falls in the dollar and yen. The all time and multiyear nominal dollar highs set on March 7th ($1,444.95/oz and $36.75/oz) look set to be challenged as gold is less than 1% from its record high and silver less than 2% from its nominal recent high.
Safe haven demand continues especially in Asia and macroeconomic and geopolitical risk remains elevated. The tragedy in Japan and possibility of an ecological catastrophe has clouded the economic picture and created even more uncertainty which will lead to continuing physical demand.
In Japan, many ATMs have not been working for days now and this is leading to safe haven demand for gold. Should efforts to sort out the ATM problem not be resolved this week it could out pressure on the already strained Japanese financial system.
Iran and Other Central Banks Secretly Increasing Gold Reserves
News that Iran and other nations with large dollar currency reserves have greatly increased their gold reserves (see News) will not come as a surprise to our readers. It stands to reason that they would given the degree of exposure which most creditor nations have to the U.S. dollar. It also stands to reason as some of them do not have cordial relations with Washington and may be reluctant to fund the U.S. continuing imprudent fiscal policies.
Gold was not the only precious metal being bought with the FT reporting that the sovereign wealth fund of Qatar, the Qatar Investment Authority is reportedly interested in acquiring both and gold and silver.
The QIA has assets estimated to exceed $65 billion and this one sovereign wealth fund alone could easily corner the very small physical silver market which is worth some $36 billion at today's prices (1 billion ounces of above ground, investment grade refined silver bullion multiply by $36 per ounce).
China Imports 245 Tonnes of Silver in February and Qatar SWF "Interested" in Buying Silver
Central banks and sovereign wealth funds with massive exposure to the dollar, such as the Russians and Chinese, are not going to shout from the roof tops their intentions to diversify into gold and silver bullion as this would lead to a surge in bullion prices and an even greater depreciation of their dollar holdings.
China imported 245.6 metric tons of silver in February. The figure is close to the 260.6 metric tons imported in February 2010 and suggests that the Chinese are more than willing to buy silver at over $30 per ounce. It also suggests that the record Chinese imports of 3,475,394 kilos seen in 2010 (a massive four fold increase from 2009) may be again attained in 2011.
This demand is likely from the private sector rather than official but it is quite possible that there has been official buying in recent months. This may have come from the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) which manages nearly $3 trillion of currency reserves. The Chinese has experienced the collapse of a paper currency and hyperinflation as recently as 1949 and therefore appreciate the value of gold (and silver) as currencies which cannot be debased.
NEWS
(Financial Times) -- Iran bought gold to cut dollar exposure
Iran has bought large amounts of gold in the international market, according to a senior Bank of England official, in a sign of how growing political pressure has driven Tehran to reduce its exposure to the US dollar.
Andrew Bailey, head of banking at the Bank of England, told an American official that the central bank had observed "significant moves by Iran to purchase gold", according to a US diplomatic cable obtained by WikiLeaks and seen by the Financial Times.
Mr Bailey said the gold buying "was an attempt by Iran to protect its reserves from risk of seizure".
Market observers believe Tehran has been one of the biggest buyers of bullion over the past decade after China, Russia and India, and is among the 20 largest holders of gold reserves.
They estimate it holds more than 300 tonnes of gold, up from 168.4 tonnes in 1996, the date of the most recent International Monetary Fund data.
The cable, dated June 2006, is the first official confirmation of Tehran's buying.
Last year central banks became net buyers of bullion after 22 years of large sales, helping drive gold prices to all-time nominal highs. Trades by central banks are often kept secret.
Bankers said other Middle Eastern countries had also been quietly adding to gold holdings to diversify away from the dollar amid political tensions and volatility in currency markets.
"The totality of central bank reserves is not what is reported to the IMF," said Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of GFMS, a precious metals consultancy. "There's probably another 10 per cent on top of that."
Cables obtained by WikiLeaks cite Jordan's prime minister as saying the central bank was "instructed to increase its holdings" of gold, and a Qatar Investment Authority official as saying the QIA was interested in buying gold and silver.
"There is no question some Middle Eastern countries are very interested in buying gold," said George Milling-Stanley, head of government affairs at the mining industry-backed World Gold Council.
In the past two months, the political unrest in the Middle East has helped propel gold to a record price of $1,444.40 a troy ounce.
The Bank of England declined to comment on the cables, but did not dispute their contents. The central banks of Iran and Jordan and the QIA did not respond to requests for comment.QIA did not respond to requests for comment.
Gold and silver rose on the open in Asia and have continued those gains so far in European trading with the Libyan military conflict leading to a safe haven bid and falls in the dollar and yen. The all time and multiyear nominal dollar highs set on March 7th ($1,444.95/oz and $36.75/oz) look set to be challenged as gold is less than 1% from its record high and silver less than 2% from its nominal recent high.
Safe haven demand continues especially in Asia and macroeconomic and geopolitical risk remains elevated. The tragedy in Japan and possibility of an ecological catastrophe has clouded the economic picture and created even more uncertainty which will lead to continuing physical demand.
In Japan, many ATMs have not been working for days now and this is leading to safe haven demand for gold. Should efforts to sort out the ATM problem not be resolved this week it could out pressure on the already strained Japanese financial system.
Iran and Other Central Banks Secretly Increasing Gold Reserves
News that Iran and other nations with large dollar currency reserves have greatly increased their gold reserves (see News) will not come as a surprise to our readers. It stands to reason that they would given the degree of exposure which most creditor nations have to the U.S. dollar. It also stands to reason as some of them do not have cordial relations with Washington and may be reluctant to fund the U.S. continuing imprudent fiscal policies.
Gold was not the only precious metal being bought with the FT reporting that the sovereign wealth fund of Qatar, the Qatar Investment Authority is reportedly interested in acquiring both and gold and silver.
The QIA has assets estimated to exceed $65 billion and this one sovereign wealth fund alone could easily corner the very small physical silver market which is worth some $36 billion at today's prices (1 billion ounces of above ground, investment grade refined silver bullion multiply by $36 per ounce).
China Imports 245 Tonnes of Silver in February and Qatar SWF "Interested" in Buying Silver
Central banks and sovereign wealth funds with massive exposure to the dollar, such as the Russians and Chinese, are not going to shout from the roof tops their intentions to diversify into gold and silver bullion as this would lead to a surge in bullion prices and an even greater depreciation of their dollar holdings.
China imported 245.6 metric tons of silver in February. The figure is close to the 260.6 metric tons imported in February 2010 and suggests that the Chinese are more than willing to buy silver at over $30 per ounce. It also suggests that the record Chinese imports of 3,475,394 kilos seen in 2010 (a massive four fold increase from 2009) may be again attained in 2011.
This demand is likely from the private sector rather than official but it is quite possible that there has been official buying in recent months. This may have come from the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) which manages nearly $3 trillion of currency reserves. The Chinese has experienced the collapse of a paper currency and hyperinflation as recently as 1949 and therefore appreciate the value of gold (and silver) as currencies which cannot be debased.
NEWS
(Financial Times) -- Iran bought gold to cut dollar exposure
Iran has bought large amounts of gold in the international market, according to a senior Bank of England official, in a sign of how growing political pressure has driven Tehran to reduce its exposure to the US dollar.
Andrew Bailey, head of banking at the Bank of England, told an American official that the central bank had observed "significant moves by Iran to purchase gold", according to a US diplomatic cable obtained by WikiLeaks and seen by the Financial Times.
Mr Bailey said the gold buying "was an attempt by Iran to protect its reserves from risk of seizure".
Market observers believe Tehran has been one of the biggest buyers of bullion over the past decade after China, Russia and India, and is among the 20 largest holders of gold reserves.
They estimate it holds more than 300 tonnes of gold, up from 168.4 tonnes in 1996, the date of the most recent International Monetary Fund data.
The cable, dated June 2006, is the first official confirmation of Tehran's buying.
Last year central banks became net buyers of bullion after 22 years of large sales, helping drive gold prices to all-time nominal highs. Trades by central banks are often kept secret.
Bankers said other Middle Eastern countries had also been quietly adding to gold holdings to diversify away from the dollar amid political tensions and volatility in currency markets.
"The totality of central bank reserves is not what is reported to the IMF," said Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of GFMS, a precious metals consultancy. "There's probably another 10 per cent on top of that."
Cables obtained by WikiLeaks cite Jordan's prime minister as saying the central bank was "instructed to increase its holdings" of gold, and a Qatar Investment Authority official as saying the QIA was interested in buying gold and silver.
"There is no question some Middle Eastern countries are very interested in buying gold," said George Milling-Stanley, head of government affairs at the mining industry-backed World Gold Council.
In the past two months, the political unrest in the Middle East has helped propel gold to a record price of $1,444.40 a troy ounce.
The Bank of England declined to comment on the cables, but did not dispute their contents. The central banks of Iran and Jordan and the QIA did not respond to requests for comment.QIA did not respond to requests for comment.
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