The MasterCharts: August 2012
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Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Silver comment from the guys at Casey research

#Silver closed at the $30.72 spot...down a dime.  The roll-overs out of the September delivery month are now in full swing...and once these were removed from the volume data, the real trading amounted to only about 15,000 contracts.
The dollar index opened around the 81.60 mark...and then wandered around either side of unchanged...but finished up about 5 basis points on the day at 81.65.  Nothing to see here, folks...please move along.
The gold stocks pretty much followed the gold price around during the New York trading session.  There were trading mostly around unchanged...but were slightly in the black until about 12:45 p.m.
From there they began to head south...and really began selling off once the Comex closed at 1:30 p.m. Eastern.  The stocks closed just off their lows...with the HUI finishing down 1.33% on the day.
The silver stocks finished lower on the day as well, although there was the odd green arrow amongst the ones that I follow.  Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed down 1.09%.
(Click on image to enlarge)
As the August delivery month winds down, the CME Daily Delivery Report showed that 18 gold and 83 silver contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow.  In silver, it was Jefferies and ABN Amro as the only two short/issuers...and the Bank of Nova Scotia was the biggest long/stopper with 76 contracts to be received on Wednesday.  The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here.

There were no reported changes in GLD yesterday...but over at SLV they reported that 1,453,740 troy ounces of silver were withdrawn.  Based on the price action of the previous week, it should be obvious that this silver was desperately needed elsewhere.
Silver should be pouring into SLV, just like gold is pouring into GLD...but that's not happening.  Since August 15th, SLV has only had 1.36 million ounces of silver deposited on at net basis.  During the same period, GLD has had about 911,600 ounces deposited.  My back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that around 5.6 million ounces is still owned to SLV over that same period of time...and that's over and above the 13.7 million ounces that is still owed to SLV by way of the current short position.
One small item that I missed in my Saturday column was a minor increase in the silver holdings over at Sprott's Physical Silver Trust on Friday.  Their website showed that they received another 30,000 ounces.  Nick Laird and I are looking for about one million ounces more.  If it has been received, it certainly hasn't been reported on Sprott's website as of yet.
There was no sales report from the U.S. Mint.
The Comex-approved depositories only received one good delivery bar of silver on Friday... tipping the scales at 958.100 troy ounces...but they shipped 949,571 troy ounces out the door to parts unknown.  The link to that action is here.

See the whole article here:  Ed Steer's Gold & Silver Daily - Intensely Curious, Focused on Facts

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Monday, August 27, 2012

Defense Spending Will Continue To Grow In Spite of Automatic Cuts Set By BCA | Mercatus

Projections outlining the future path of the defense base budget are depicted by combining the red and purple regions, which represent the defense base budget if spending is capped under levels stated in the BCA. Taking away the red region and leaving the purple region shows the projected base budget if sequestration occurs in tandem with the BCA caps. And, lastly, adding the blue region to the red and purple combined accounts for future base and war spending.

Defense Spending Will Continue To Grow In Spite of Automatic Cuts Set By BCA | Mercatus

Thursday, August 09, 2012

#Charts: #China’s residential #housing starts continued to fall

Despite a somewhat better sentiment in China’s real estate market in the recent months on the back of stimulus hope, residential housing starts continued to fall.

For January-July, residential housing starts declined by 13.4% compared with the same period a year ago, down from –10.7% for January-June.  If we derive the year-on-year growth for the month of July only from the accumulative data, residential housing starts fell 30.4%, worst number on record apparently.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics

Charts: China’s residential housing starts continued to fall

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David Rosenberg: The Coming Negative Export Shock | PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM

The Coming Negative Export Shock

Click here to find out more!
David Rosenberg has an indicator for us here that isn’t too mainstream.  He says the correlation between exports and new orders could prove prescient in forecasting a recession in the US:
“I think that there may be a time, before too long, when we will walk into the office to find that they US prints a negative GDP reading on the back of a negative export shock that does not appear to be in any forecast – let alone the consensus.  Look at the pattern of ISM export orders:
- April 59
- May 53.5
- June 47.5
- July 46.5
This is called a pattern.  And this is a level that coincided with the two prior recessions.  As the chart below vividly illustrates, there is a significant 81% correlation between annual growth in total US exports and the ISM new orders index (with a 4 month lag).  So either the market has already priced this in or it is going to end up coming as a very big surprise….”

Source: Gluskin Sheff

David Rosenberg: The Coming Negative Export Shock | PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM

The MasterMetals Blog

Sunday, August 05, 2012