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Gold & Silver 24 hr Spot

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Note: Green is today (or last trading day)

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Sunday, April 16, 2017

U. S. stock markets looking awfully tippy $SPX $RUT $DJIA $INDU

It is high noon to nail down your profits.


Long weekends have the big advantage that people have more time for their families and more time to think about their live and other things like to figure out to make money.

 

We took the occasion to look at daily charts of three U.S. stock indices, the Dow Jones, Standard & Poor 500, and the Russell 200 Index.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Index and the S&P 500 Index fell last Thursday below the 50-day moving average. The Russell 2000 Small Capitalization Index has already for weeks a tough time to hold the 50-day moving average (attachments 1-4).

 

We still think the U.S stock markets are in a overture stage, talking in Opera terms, of something bigger to come. This is also valuable for European stock markets. On U.S. inauguration day, on January 20, 2017, the lights turned from green to yellow (amber). We all know from traffic lights, the next colour is red.

 

 

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

#USD Dollar Index - Waiting for the upside breakout


Attachment 1 is the U. S. Dollar Index long term Point&Figure chart. For the last 2 years the index has been forming a Broadening or Megaphone pattern. A breakout of 102 would signal that the index would be departing for a new uptrend.


The U.S. Dollar Index, which reflects a basket of currencies versus the U. S. Dollar, has shown some strength lately. Attachment 2 indicates the components of the U.S. Dollar Index. This is the index the Federal Reserve is watching.

 

The reason is once again the financial condition of Greece. As in the past a lot of talking is taking place among Brussel's politicians (EU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Government of Greece.

 

Most likely, nobody in the European Union has an interest to deal with the real financial crisis (haircut on government bonds, let Greece out of the EU in order to devalue the new currency) as the elections in France are just two months away. Some new funds will flow to Greece to calm down the game. In other words the problem will be postponed to an indefinite date.

 

Attachment 3 shows the EURO versus U. S. Dollar

long term Point&Figure chart. It indicates the dramatic decline of the EURO in spring 2014 from 136 to 105 in spring 2015. We are bullish on the U. S. Dollar and wouldn't be surprised to see the next downtrend to be started in the next few months.

 


Wednesday, February 01, 2017

Key Technical Levels on #Gold, #USD Ahead of #FOMC Rate Decision

From Paradigm Capital:

Chart 1 – Key levels to watch on Gold heading into the FOMC Rate Decision on Wednesday:

o   Support at the 50-day moving average near $1,180, a breakdown would signal the resumption of the downtrend with risk to the December lows;

o   Resistance at the January highs, ability to make a higher high would signal upside back toward the 200-day MA near $1,270.

 
Chart 2 – The key ratio we continue to monitor for a directional signal in gold equities is the GDX versus GLD. Recall that a key a staple of a gold bull market is outperformance of gold stocks relative to gold. Ability for the GDX:GLD ratio to break above 0.21x along the November and January highs would, in our view, provide a signal to build an overweight gold position. Failure at this level, however, would keep the series of lower lows and lower highs intact.

 

Chart 3 – The U.S. Dollar Index has pulled back to support along the December lows. A break below this level would sgnal a deeper correction back toward the 200-day moving average. Resistance on the upside exists at the 50-day moving average at 101.50.
 
 
 
Gold: Key Levels Ahead of Fed
 
 
 
 
GDX vs GLD Ratio: Watch for a  Break Above November and January Highs
 
 
 
 
U.S. Dollar Index: Key Levels
 
 
 
 

Friday, December 16, 2016

10Yr #Bonds Yields Poised for Further Upside, #Gold Resuming Downtrend

10-Year Yields Poised for Further Upside, Gold Resuming Downtrend

10-Year Treasury Yield: Breaking Above Key Downtrend Signalling Further Upside

 

 

 

Gold: Resumption of the Long Term Downtrend

 

 

 

 

Gold: 2016 Top Measures to $1,045.

 

 

 

Equal Weight Gold Index: Breaking Below November Lows, Resuming Downtrend

 

 

Monday, October 17, 2016

#Gold - The crowd still too bullish


Net commercial gold dealers

dropped further their positions,

which are now at the lowest level

since May 31st. However, the

positions are still sizeable. Large

speculators (hedge funds and

managed money) further took their

losses (attachment 1).

 

In the silver market large speculators

reduced their positions taking the losses.

Net commercial silver dealers also

reduced their short positions, which

historically are still large (attachment 2).

 

The KITCO Gold Survey indicates that

Wall Street and Retail investors are in the short

term still in the bullish camp. This is not a

good sign (attachment 3).

 

The Gold Barometers are neutral for

precious metal stocks and physical gold

and silver (attachment 4).

 

The Gold hourly chart (attachment 5)

shows that gold went nowhere last week.

As a matter of fact gold was unable to rally

after the sharp losses of the week prior.

Gold lost US$ 5.00 per ounce last week

(New York time 4:00 p.m.) to US$ 1,252

per ounce. It all looks that a test at the

US$ 1,200 per ounce will follow.

 

Gold stocks always outperform the physical

gold price in an environment of rising gold

prices. On the other side, falling gold prices mean

that gold stocks decline sharper than the gold

bullion. The attached chart 6 shows that the

ARCA Gold Bugs Index (HUI) climbed from a

low of around 100 in January 2016 to a high of

around 285 by August 2016. HUI lost about 30%

over the last two months, whereas the gold bullion

declined around 9%. The HUI Index has just

fallen a bit below the 200-day moving average

(attachment 6).

 

 

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