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A 7 Million Increase In US Population Results In A Labor Force... Decline? Why The US Has Really Lost 11.2 Million Jobs This Recession

By Tyler Durden

Created 09/04/2010 - 20:36

One of the most peculiar observations of this depression started in December 2007 is that while the total US population has increased by 6.8 million from 303.3 million to just over 310 million in July 2010, over the same 32 month period, the civilian labor force has declined from 153.9 million to 153.6 million. This makes zero sense, as all those aging into working age, or immigrating into the US need to find some job or some other paid activity (either legally or illegally). But let's assume that due to discouragement with economic conditions people simply refuse to look for jobs. The reality is that eventually all those people will come storming into the job market, once the economy recovers sufficiently. Which is why we make an estimate of what the "fair value" of the civilian labor pool is based on the historical average participation rate of 50.4% (as a percentage of total population). Backing into the cumulative population growth by this estimate, means that as of July 2010, the labor force has really grown by 3.4 million, once the one-time adjustment of a "recession" is eliminated (and after all that's what all modern economist claim right - that recessions are merely one-time blips on the road to perpetual Keynesian growth). In other words, the cumulative differential between the labor force as reported, and as calculated has hit an all time record of 3.7 million: this is a number that has to be added to the 7.6 million directly tabulated unemployed to get a sense of just how many jobs have been lost assuming a reversion to the mean for the US economy. In other words, after eliminating the statistical voodoo of the BEA and the Census Bureau, the US has lost just over 11.2 million jobs since the start of the recession.
Chart 1: we demonstrate the cumulative change in the population of the US, the cumulative change in the as reported and the as calculated labor force, and the difference between the two (thick black line).
[1]
Chart 2: Cumulative job losses since December 2007, based on Establishment Survey estimates and adjusted for Labor Force "Catch Up"
[2]

• Census Bureau
• Reality
• Recession

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Source URL: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/7-million-increase-us-population-results-labor-force-decline-why-us-has-really-lost-112-mill

Links:
[1] http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/Population Growth and Labor Force_1.jpg
[2] http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/Population Growth and Labor Force 2.jpg

A 7 Million Increase In US Population Results In A Labor Force... Decline? Why The US Has Really Lost 11.2 Million Jobs This Recession

IRS Hiring Special Agents for Criminal Investigation Division - Finance Career Management, Finance Career News - fins.com

IRS Hiring Special Agents for Criminal Investigation Division - Finance Career Management, Finance Career News
fins.com

Come one, come all: The IRS is hiring for one of its prime divisions.

The agency expects to get $5.1 million to spend on hiring for its Criminal Investigation Division -- though an agency spokesman could not say exactly how many the IRS is looking to hire.

A recently-released report from the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA) that assesses the Division's performance states that special agent staffing has increased 4.1% from last year, from 2,617 to 2,725. But the difference of 108 positions represents the net between 312 newly hired agents and the loss of 204 experienced agents. Overall, the number of field special agents has decreased 10.2% since 2004.
This new hiring comes in the wake of last year's push for 800 new employees to scour the world in search of American tax evaders.
The turnover has resulted in fewer case completions than in previous years. Last year, TIGTA expressed concerns that the Division would fail to "reduce the pipeline inventory." That worry was justified. Even though the Division reduced its completion goal from 4,000 to 3,900, it still came up 52 investigations short in 2009.
As the recent kerfuffle between U.S. and Swiss authorities over the transfer of tax data indicates, the premium placed on routing out international tax schemes has reached an all-time high, and the IRS needs agents around the world to act as gumshoes. According to the report, "the international initiative will require increased hiring and include a broader range of cases and sharply increased presence in other countries."
While an IRS spokesman could not give a full outline of the hiring initiative, he did highlight some of the necessary qualifications that can be found on the IRS' website:

-- Younger than 37, unless you've served in a federal law enforcement position before.
-- Prime physical condition (you'll be tested on it).
-- Gun-shooting experience.
If you're comfortable with all of the above and you like the sound of Special Agent [Your Name Here], you may want to consider applying.

Write to Julie Steinberg

IRS Hiring Special Agents for Criminal Investigation Division - Finance Career Management, Finance Career News - fins.com: "IRS Hiring Special Agents for Criminal Investigation Division
By Julie Steinberg"

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