The MasterCharts: Declines in Conception Rates Predict U.S. #Recessions HT @WSJ

Subscribe to The MasterCharts Feed Subscribe to The MasterCharts by Email

Gold & Silver 24 hr Spot

24 Hour Spot Gold 3-Day Overlay24 Hour Spot Silver 3-Day Overlay

Gold Silver

24 Hour Spot 3-Day Overlay 24 Hour Spot Silver 3-Day Overlay

Note: Green is today (or last trading day)


Tuesday, February 27, 2018

Declines in Conception Rates Predict U.S. #Recessions HT @WSJ

New research suggests that the declines in conception growth (fewer pregnancies) are a reliable predictor of US recessions.

Source: @kevinrinz, @Kasey_Buckles; Read full article

 "for recent recessions in the United States, the growth rate for conceptions begins to fall several quarters prior to economic decline. Our findings suggest that fertility behavior is more forward-looking and sensitive to changes in short-run expectations about the economy than previously thought." 

Here is the comparison against the unemployment rate.

Source: @kevinrinz, @Kasey_Buckles; Read full article

No comments:

Post a Comment

Commented on The MasterCharts