As Research in Motion Continues Its Inevitable Downward Descent In Both Equity Value and Market Share, Investors Should Tweak Their Assumptions Accordingly
Research in Motion's recent equity share decline stems not only from market share loss, but from the apparent lack of a clear cut and believable plan to stem that market share loss.
Research in Motion, is still currently the market leader in terms of share, but is losing both demonstrably and rapidly in new users. As a matter of fact, if the recent historical trends persist, this is the last quarter that RIM will be able to claim the top of the market title as Android looks well situated to claim that crown.
As can be seen from this chart, Android is just about there. Apple will probably show better numbers in Q3 with additional evidence of iPhone 4 adoption as well.
So, although RIM is looking quite cheap now, it is quite possible for it to look much cheaper. The question is how does this market share loss factor into its equity valuation.
Check it out on The MasterCharts